Who would have thought that even deep-red Texas

Who would have thought that even deep-red Texas would go blue and south? ..."
—Donald J. Trump

Lilliputin by Yury Lobo
Gemini said:

Here is a full breakdown of the quote's rhetoric, the electoral reality, and the broader political dynamics behind Texas voting trends.

1. Rhetorical Breakdown
The Double Entendre of "Going South":

The phrase plays on two meanings:

Idiomatic: "Going south" means deteriorating, falling apart, or failing.

Geographic/Political: Texas is literally in the American South, and the expression parallels turning "blue" (Democratic) with experiencing political decline or ideological drift.

The "Deep-Red" Framing:

Describing Texas as "deep-red" emphasizes its status as the electoral bedrock of the Republican Party. With its 40 Electoral College votes, losing Texas would make any Republican path to the presidency nearly impossible under current electoral maps.

2. Electoral Reality vs. The "Blue Texas" Narrative
While national commentary frequently discusses whether demographic growth will turn Texas purple or blue, recent election results tell a different story:

Strong Republican Anchors: In presidential elections, Donald Trump won Texas consistently:

2016: Won by ~9.0 percentage points.

2020: Won by ~5.6 percentage points.

2024: Carried the state by double digits (~13.7 percentage points, winning by over 1.5 million votes).   
Wikipedia

The Urban/Suburban Pull: Democrats have seen gains in major metropolitan areas—Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio—flipping several populous suburban counties and increasing margins inside central cities.

The Counter-Shift in Rural & South Texas: Counteracting Democratic gains in the metros, Republicans have made historic inroads in rural counties and predominantly Latino border areas across South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. In 2024, multiple border counties that had voted Democratic for generations flipped Republican.   
The Texas Tribune

3. Why the Narrative Persists
Massive Electoral Prize: With 40 electoral votes, Texas is second only to California. Both parties invest heavily in shaping perceptions of its competitiveness.

Rapid Demographic Shifts: A fast-growing population driven by domestic migration, younger voters, and a large Latino electorate fuels recurring speculation about party realignments.

Turnout and Mobilization: National campaigns on both sides use the prospect of a shifting Texas as a powerful fundraising and get-out-the-vote motivator.