There are unknown unknowns

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There are unknown unknowns - Wikipedia

Known unknowns are risks or gaps in knowledge we are aware of, while unknown unknowns are unforeseen factors that we cannot anticipate.
Definitions
Known unknowns refer to situations or risks that we recognize exist but do not fully understand. These are gaps in knowledge that can be addressed through research, investigation, or consultation with experts. For example, a company may know that a new technology could disrupt its market but cannot predict exactly how or when it will happen.
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Unknown unknowns, on the other hand, are factors that are completely unforeseen and outside our awareness. These are risks or events that we cannot anticipate because they fall outside our current understanding or experience. They often catch individuals or organizations off guard and can have significant consequences.
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Historical Context
The distinction between known unknowns and unknown unknowns was popularized by Donald Rumsfeld in a 2002 press briefing, though the concepts were already in use in U.S. defense procurement and NASA by the late 1960s. Rumsfeld’s framework, known as the Rumsfeld Matrix, categorizes knowledge into four types: known knowns, known unknowns, unknown knowns, and unknown unknowns, providing a structured approach to understanding uncertainty.
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Practical Implications
Managing Known Unknowns: Since these gaps are recognized, organizations can plan, allocate resources, and conduct research to reduce uncertainty. For instance, risk assessments, contingency planning, and expert consultations are effective strategies.
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Dealing with Unknown Unknowns: These require resilience and flexibility because they cannot be predicted. Strategies include building slack into schedules, maintaining contingency funds, and fostering adaptive decision-making processes.
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Key Differences
| Feature | Known Unknowns | Unknown Unknowns |
|---------|----------------|----------------|
| Awareness | We know they exist | We are unaware of them |
| Predictability | Can be investigated and planned for | Cannot be anticipated or planned for |
| Risk Management | Research, expert consultation, contingency planning | Flexibility, resilience, adaptive strategies |
| Impact | Moderate to high, manageable | Often high, potentially disruptive |
Understanding the distinction between these two types of uncertainty is crucial for effective decision-making, risk management, and strategic planning, as it helps organizations prioritize resources and prepare for both foreseeable and unforeseeable challenges.
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There are unknown unknowns


From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Rumsfeld during a Pentagon news briefing in February 2002
"There are unknown unknowns" is a phrase from a response United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld gave to a question at a U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) news briefing on February 12, 2002, about the lack of evidence linking the government of Iraq with the supply of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups.[1] Rumsfeld stated:

Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.[1]

The statement became the subject of much commentary. In The Decision Book (2013), author Mikael Krogerus [de] refers to it as the "Rumsfeld matrix".[2] The statement also features in a 2013 documentary film, The Unknown Known, directed by Errol Morris.[3]

Known unknowns refers to "risks you are aware of, such as canceled flights",[4] whereas unknown unknowns are risks that come from situations that are so unexpected that they would not be considered.

Origins
Rumsfeld's statement brought attention to the concepts of known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns, but these were in common use in US defense procurement by the late 1960s. In a 1968 study sponsored by the Aerospace Industries Association, Hudson Drake from North American Rockwell argued that defence contractors had to solve both known unknowns and "unanticipated unknowns".[5] Also in 1968, Lt. Gen. William B. Bunker noted that when developing complex weapons systems "there are two kinds of technical problems: there are the known unknowns, and the unknown unknowns."[6] The usage was common enough for an industry shorthand to have developed where unknown-unknowns were referred to as "unk-unks".[7]

The term was commonly used inside NASA.[8] Rumsfeld cited NASA administrator William Graham in his memoir; he wrote that he had first heard "a variant of the phrase" from Graham when they served together on the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States during the late 1990s.[9] Rumsfeld had previously publicly used the terms himself, stating in a 2000 speech that "There are known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns. Effective intelligence work must consider them all."[10]

The terms "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns" are often used in project management and strategic planning[11] circles.

Contemporary usage is largely consistent with the earliest known usages. For example, the term was used in evidence given to the British Columbia Royal Commission of Inquiry into Uranium Mining in 1979:

Site conditions always pose unknowns, or uncertainties, which may become known during construction or operation to the detriment of the facility and possibly lead to damage of the environment or endanger public health and safety. The risk posed by unknowns is somewhat dependent on the nature of the unknown relative to past experience. This has led me to classify unknowns into one of the following two types:

1. known unknowns (expected or foreseeable conditions), which can be reasonably anticipated but not quantified based on past experience as exemplified by case histories (in Appendix A) and

2. Unknown unknowns (unexpected or unforeseeable conditions), which pose a potentially greater risk simply because they cannot be anticipated based on past experience or investigation.

Known unknowns result from recognized but poorly understood phenomena. On the other hand, unknown unknowns are phenomena which cannot be expected because there has been no prior experience or theoretical basis for expecting the phenomena.[12]

The term also appeared in a 1982 New Yorker article on the aerospace industry, which cites the example of metal fatigue, the cause of crashes in de Havilland Comet airliners in the 1950s.[13]

Reaction
Canadian columnist Mark Steyn called it "in fact a brilliant distillation of quite a complex matter".[14] Australian economist and blogger John Quiggin wrote: "Although the language may be tortured, the basic point is both valid and important."[15]

Psychoanalytic philosopher Slavoj ;i;ek says that beyond these three categories there is a fourth, the unknown known, that which one intentionally refuses to acknowledge that one knows: "If Rumsfeld thinks that the main dangers in the confrontation with Iraq were the 'unknown unknowns', that is, the threats from Saddam whose nature we cannot even suspect, then the Abu Ghraib scandal shows that the main dangers lie in the 'unknown knowns'—the disavowed beliefs, suppositions and obscene practices we pretend not to know about, even though they form the background of our public values."[16]

German sociologists Christopher Daase and Oliver Kessler agreed that the cognitive frame for political practice may be determined by the relationship between "what we know, what we do not know, what we cannot know", but stated that Rumsfeld left out "what we do not like to know".[17]

The event has been used in multiple books to discuss risk assessment.[3][18]

Rumsfeld named his 2011 autobiography Known and Unknown: A Memoir. In an author's note at the start of the book, he expressly acknowledges the source of his memoir's title and mentions a few examples of his statement's prominence.[19] The Unknown Known is the title of Errol Morris's 2013 biographical documentary film about Rumsfeld.[20] In it, Rumsfeld initially defines "unknown knowns" as "the things you think you know, that it turns out you did not", and toward the end of the film he re-defines the term as "things that you know, that you don't know you know".[21]

Rumsfeld's comment earned the 2003 Foot in Mouth Award from the British Plain English Campaign.[22]

In April 2003, Slate columnist Hart Seely arranged Rumsfeld's public statements as found poetry, presenting the "unknown unknowns" passage as a poem titled "The Unknown".[23] Seely later published a full collection, Pieces of Intelligence: The Existential Poetry of Donald H. Rumsfeld (2003).[24] The poems were subsequently set to music by pianist Bryant Kong and performed by soprano Elender Wall.[25]

Historical context
As alluded to by Rumsfeld in his autobiography,[19]:;xv; over two millennia ago Socrates considered known unknowns and unknown unknowns.[26][27] Much later, Thomas Aquinas in his Summa Theologica also emphasized the important difference between recognized ignorance and unconscious ignorance.[28]

Rumsfeld's statement closely parallelled a well-known proverb about knowledge:[29][30]

He who knows not, and knows not that he knows not, is a fool. Shun him.
He who knows not, and knows that he knows not, is simple. Teach him.
He who knows, and knows not that he knows, is asleep. Wake him.
He who knows, and knows that he knows, is wise. Follow him.

This has been widely quoted[31] since the 19th century as (for example) an anonymous Persian,[32][33] Arabic,[34][35] African,[36] Japanese,[37] Oriental[38] or simply an old[39] proverb, or attributed to authors ranging from Confucius[40] to Bruce Lee.[41] The proverb is actually a close translation (with line order reversed) of al-Khalil ibn Ahmad al-Farahidi's medieval epigram about the "four kinds of men", as reported by Al-Ghazali (1058-1111 CE),[42][43] which was later echoed in poems by Nasir al-Din al-Tusi[44] and Ibn Yamin.[45]

"Unknown unknowns" were occasionally mentioned in the 1950s and 60s. In 1950, it was noted that sociology research was full of "unknown unknowns".[46] In a 1962 commencement address, Nobel laureate biochemist Melvin Calvin discussed how humanity "must grapple not only with the known and the 'known unknown', but also with the vastness of the 'unknown unknown'."[47]

A related 2x2 grid was created in 1955 by two American psychologists, Joseph Luft and Harrington Ingham in their development of the Johari window, a "graphic model of interpersonal behaviour"[48] that classifies knowledge about your behavior and motivations in terms of whether you or others are aware of those behaviours or motivations. For example, your motivation might be (un)known by you and (un)known by others. Another similar[49] classification scheme is the conscious competence learning model published in 1960, where a person's knowledge and skills are classified according to how (un)conscious and (in)competent they are.[50]

Analytical sciences
The term "known unknowns" has been applied to the identification of chemical substances using analytical chemistry approaches, specifically mass spectrometry. In many cases, an unknown to an investigator that is detected in an experiment is actually known in the chemical literature, a reference database, or an Internet resource. These types of compounds are termed "known unknowns". The term was originally coined by Little et al.[51] and reported a number of times in the literature since then as a general approach.[52][53][54][55]

See also
Black swan theory
Cynefin framework
Dunning–Kruger effect
Emic and etic
Epistemic modal logic
Four stages of competence
I know that I know nothing
Ignoramus et ignorabimus
Ignotum per ignotius
Johari window
Knightian uncertainty
Known and Unknown: A Memoir
Outside Context Problem
Russell's teapot
Undecidable problem
The Unknown Known
Wild card (foresight)
Argument from ignorance
References
 "Defense.gov News Transcript: DoD News Briefing – Secretary Rumsfeld and Gen. Myers". United States Department of Defense. February 12, 2002. Archived from the original on April 6, 2016.
 Krogerus, Mikael (2012). The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking. Roman Tsch;ppeler, Jenny Piening (1st American ed.). New York: W.W. Norton & Co. pp. 86–87. ISBN 978-0-393-07961-6. OCLC 738350045.
 Girard, John; Girard, JoAnn (June 1, 2009). A Leader's Guide to Knowledge Management: Drawing on the Past to Enhance Future Performance. Business Expert Press. pp. 55–. ISBN 9781606490198. Retrieved February 10, 2014.
 Biafore, Bonnie (December 14, 2011). "Project Management Fundamentals". Lynda.com. Lynda.com/LinkedIN. Retrieved October 17, 2015.
 Poole, Walter S. (2013). "Chapter IV – Innovation: Coping with 'Unanticipated Unknowns'". History of Acquisition in the Department of Defence, Volume 2, Adapting to Flexible Response 1960-1968. p. 95.
 Andrews, Walter (December 7, 1968). "The 'Known Unknowns' And The 'Unknown Unknowns'". Armed Force Journal. 106 (15): 14–15.
 Meyers, Harald B. (August 1, 1969). "For Lockheed, Everything's Coming Up Unk-Unks". Fortune. Vol. 80, no. 2. p. 76.
 "NASA Program Management and Procurement Procedures and Practices: Hearings Before the Subcommittee on Space Science and Applications of the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, First Session, June 24, 25, 1981". U.S. Government Printing Office. 1981.
 Rumsfeld, Donald (2011). Known and Unknown: A Memoir. New York: Penguin Group. p. xiv. ISBN 9781101502495.
 Rumsfeld, Donald H. (February 8, 2000). Remarks of the Honorable Donald H. Rumsfeld Prepared for delivery, Community Forum Series: The New National Security Environment. Nominations Before the Senate Armed Services Committee, First Session, 107th Congress. Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania: U.S. Government Printing Office. pp. 194–203. ISBN 978-0-16-069297-0.
 Courtney, Hugh; Kirkland, Jane; Viguerie, Patrick (November 1997). "Strategy Under Uncertainty". Harvard Business Review. 75 (6): 66–79. PMID 10174798.
 "Phase V: Waste Disposal". Statement of Evidence of E. D'Appolonia, D'Appolonia Consulting Engineers, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Proceedings of the British Columbia Royal Commission of Inquiry into Uranium Mining. 1979. ISBN 978-0-7718-8198-5. 0005037606.
 Newhouse, J. (June 14, 1982), "A reporter at large: a sporty game; 1-betting the company", New Yorker, pp. 48–105.
 Steyn, Mark (December 9, 2003). "Rummy speaks the truth, not gobbledygook". Daily Telegraph. Retrieved October 30, 2008.
 Quiggin, John (February 10, 2004). "In Defense of Rumsfeld". johnquiggin.com. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
 ;i;ek, Slavoj (May 21, 2004). "What Rumsfeld Doesn't Know That He Knows About Abu Ghraib". In These Times. Retrieved February 23, 2009 – via lacan.com.
 Daase, Christopher; Kessler, Oliver (December 2007). "Knowns and Unknowns in the 'War on Terror': Uncertainty and the Political Construction of Danger". Security Dialogue. 38 (4): 411–434. doi:10.1177/0967010607084994. ISSN 0967-0106. S2CID 145253344.
 Neve, Geert de; Luetchford, Peter (2008). Hidden Hands in the Market: Ethnographies of Fair Trade, Ethical Consumption, and Corporate Social Responsibility. Emerald Group Publishing. pp. 252–. ISBN 9781848550582. Retrieved February 10, 2014.
 Rumsfeld, Donald (2011). Known and Unknown: A Memoir. New York: Penguin Group. p. xiii. ISBN 9781101502495.
 Scott, A. O. (April 2, 2014). "Not Giving an Inch in a Battle of Wits and Words; Deciphering Donald H. Rumsfeld in 'The Unknown Known'". The New York Times. Retrieved April 4, 2014.
 Morris, Errol (Director) (December 13, 2013). The Unknown Known (Motion picture). Los Angeles, CA: The Weinstein Company.
 "Rum remark wins Rumsfeld an award". BBC News. December 2, 2003. Retrieved September 30, 2012.
 Seely, Hart (April 2, 2003). "The Poetry of D.H. Rumsfeld". Slate. Retrieved March 5, 2026.
 Seely, Hart (2003). Pieces of Intelligence: The Existential Poetry of Donald H. Rumsfeld. New York: Free Press. ISBN 978-0-7432-5239-3.
 "The Poetry of Donald Rumsfeld, Set to Music". NPR's Morning Edition. March 12, 2004. Retrieved March 5, 2026. {{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |work= (help)
 Rozell, Daniel J. (2020). Dangerous Science: Science Policy and Risk Analysis for Scientists and Engineers. Ubiquity Press. p. 48. ISBN 9781911529897.
 McCarthy, Christine; Carr, David; Bailey, Richard; Barrow, Robin, eds. (March 23, 2010). The SAGE Handbook of Philosophy of Education. p. 304. ISBN 9781446206973.
 Nugent, J.B. (1967). "Ignorance". New Catholic Encyclopedia. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company. Retrieved March 13, 2025.
 Pullum, Geoffrey K. (2005). "No foot in mouth". In Sumner, Tom (ed.). Untidy: The Blogs on Rumsfeld. Wilsonville, Oregon: William, James & Co. p. 28. ISBN 9781590280478.
 Saravanan, R. (2021). "Chapter 13: The Rumsfeld Matrix". The Climate Demon: Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction. Cambridge University Press. p. 200. doi:10.1017/9781009039604. ISBN 9781009039604.
 Bartlett, John (1955). Familiar Quotations: a collection of passages, phrases, and proverbs traced to their sources in ancient and modern literature (13 ed.). Boston: Little, Brown. p. 754.
 Felleman, Hazel, ed. (1936). The Best Loved Poems of the American People. Garden City, New York: Garden City Books. p. 623.
 Morgan, Joy Elmer, ed. (1951). The American Citizens Handbook. National Education Association of the United States. p. 371.
 "A Knowsy Proverb". The Globe. Toronto. December 15, 1885. p. 6. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
 Burton, Isabel (1893). The Life of Sir Richard F. Burton, K.C.M.G., F.R.G.S. London: Chapman & Hall. p. 548. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
 Kimbro, Dennis (1993). "September 4: Sesame Street". Daily Motivations for African-American Success. New York: Random House - Fawcett Books. ISBN 9780449223253.
 "Japanese Proverbs". Presbyterian Standard. Vol. XLVI, no. 53. Charlotte, N.C. February 6, 1907. p. 21.
 Hoult, Elizabeth (2006). Learning support : a guide for mature students. Sage Publications. p. 55. ISBN 9781412902946.
 Driscoe, Margaret Sutton (December 22, 1894). "The Days We Live In". Harper's Bazaar. Vol. 27, no. 51. p. 6. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
 Dixon, Michael (April 16, 1993). "A case of the worst sort of ignorance". Financial Times. London. p. 22. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
 "Bruce Lee: A Visit to the Grave". Grand Royal Magazine. No. Fall/Winter. Los Angeles. 1993. p. 50. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
 Al=Ghazali, Muhammad Hamid (June 25, 2013). ";;;;; ;;;;;; ;; ;;;; ;;;;; ;;;;; ;;;;;; ;;;;; ;;;;;; ;;;;;;;; ;;;;". ;;;;: ;;;;; ;;;; ;;;;; ;;;; ;;;;; (in Arabic). pp. 87–88.
 Al-Ghazali, Abu Hamed (2011). Revival of the Religion's Sciences. Translated by al-Sharif, Mohammad Mahdi. Beirut, Lebanon: Dar Al-Kotob Al-ilmiyah. p. 115. ISBN 978-2-7451-5945-8.
 Axworthy, Michael (2008). A history of Iran : empire of the mind. New York: Basic Books. ISBN 978-0-465-00888-9.
 Arberry, A.J. (1958). Classical Persian Literature. London: George Allen & Unwin Ltd. p. 315. ISBN 9780203985434.
 Gordon, William E (July 1950). "The research project: Its educational value and its contribution to social work knowledge". Social Work Journal. 31 (3): 110–116. JSTOR 23705367.
 "University Responding to Challenges". UCLA Summer Bruin. June 15, 1962. p. 2.
 Luft, Joseph (1969). Of human interaction. National Press Book. ISBN 978-0-87484-134-3.
 Tovstiga, Nicole; Tovstiga, George (2021). "COVID-19: a knowledge and learning perspective". Knowledge Management Research & Practice. 19 (4): 427–432. doi:10.1080/14778238.2020.1806749.
 DePhillips, Frank A.; Berliner, William M.; Cribbin, James J. (1960). Management of Training Programs. Homewood, Illinois: Richard C. Erwin, Inc. p. 69.
 Little, J.L.; Cleven, C.D.; Brown, S.D. (2011). "Identification of "Known Unknowns" utilizing accurate mass data and chemical abstracts service databases". J. Am. Soc. Mass Spectrom. 22 (2): 348–359. Bibcode:2011JASMS..22..348L. doi:10.1007/s13361-010-0034-3. PMID 21472594.
 Little, James L. (2011). "Identification of "known unknowns" utilizing accurate mass data and ChemSpider". Journal of the American Society for Mass Spectrometry. 23 (1): 179–185. doi:10.1007/s13361-011-0265-y. PMID 22069037.
 Stein, S. (2012). "Mass Spectral Reference Libraries: An Ever-Expanding Resource for Chemical Identification". Analytical Chemistry. 84 (17): 7274–7282. doi:10.1021/ac301205z. PMID 22803687.
 McEachran, Andrew D.; Sobus, Jon R.; Williams, Antony J. (2016). "Identifying known unknowns using the US EPA's CompTox Chemistry Dashboard". Analytical and Bioanalytical Chemistry. 409 (7): 1729–1735. doi:10.1007/s00216-016-0139-z. PMID 27987027. S2CID 31754962.
 Schymanski, Emma L.; Williams, Antony J. (2017). "Open Science for Identifying "Known Unknown" Chemicals". Environmental Science and Technology. 51 (10): 5357–5359. Bibcode:2017EnST...51.5357S. doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b01908. PMC 6260822. PMID 28475325.
External links
"Defense Department Briefing". C-SPAN. February 12, 2002.
Reporter:37:19 ...Because there are reports that there is no evidence of a direct link between Baghdad and some of these terrorist organizations.
Rumsfeld: Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me...
Logan, David C. (March 1, 2009). "Known knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns and the propagation of scientific enquiry". Journal of Experimental Botany. 60 (3): 712–4. doi:10.1093/jxb/erp043. PMID 19269994.
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Donald Rumsfeld
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Categories: American phraseologyEpistemologyPolitical quotesUnknown contentIgnorance2002 quotationsDonald RumsfeldIraq War terminology
This page was last edited on 5 March 2026, at 18:15 (UTC).


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There are known knowns


Die Wissens-Matrix wird in knowns und unknowns unterteilt (obere Zeile); zus;tzlich wird dieses Wissen auf einer Metaebene in unbekannt und bekannt unterteilt (linke Spalte).

There are known knowns ... But there are also unknown unknowns (englisch f;r „Es gibt bekanntes Bekanntes ... Aber es gibt auch unbekanntes Unbekanntes“) ist der bekannteste Ausspruch des damaligen US-Verteidigungsministers Donald Rumsfeld, den er w;hrend einer Pressekonferenz im Februar 2002 t;tigte.[1]

Das Zitat wurde weit ;ber die damalige Fragestellung im Vorfeld des Dritten Golfkriegs bekannt und in der Folge in der ;ffentlichkeit wie Fachliteratur zu Risikoabsch;tzungen verwendet.[2] Rumsfeld selbst spielte mit dem Titel seiner 2011 erschienenen Biografie Known and Unknown: A Memoir auf seinen Ausspruch an.

Verwendung
Donald Rumsfeld sagte am 12. Februar 2002 auf einer Pressekonferenz:

[…] there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don't know we don't know.

„[…] es gibt bekanntes Bekanntes; es gibt Dinge, von denen wir wissen, dass wir sie wissen. Wir wissen auch, dass es bekanntes Unbekanntes gibt; das hei;t, wir wissen, dass es einige Dinge gibt, die wir nicht wissen. Aber es gibt auch unbekanntes Unbekanntes – es gibt Dinge, von denen wir nicht wissen, dass wir sie nicht wissen.“

– Donald Rumsfeld: Pressekonferenz vom 12. Februar 2002[3]
Damit vermied er es, (vgl. Begr;ndung f;r den Irakkrieg) auf der damaligen Pressekonferenz das Fehlen von Beweisen anzusprechen, die die Regierung des Irak mit der Lieferung von Massenvernichtungswaffen an Terrorgruppen in Verbindung brachten.

Auf dem Feld des strategischen Handelns in Wirtschaft und Politik lassen sich mit der Kenntnis-Matrix Aufgaben sinnvoll strukturieren:

Known knowns sind z. B. Ursache-Wirkungs-Zusammenh;nge oder Fakten, die wir kennen und mit denen wir (t;glich) umzugehen wissen.

Known unknowns beschreiben uns bekannte Wissensl;cken, Sch;tzungen oder „Dunkelziffern“, ein uns bewusstes Nichtwissen, das doch mit jeder sinnvollen Frage und durch Wissenschaft etwas kleiner wird oder werden k;nnte – die Zahl der Sandk;rner an einem Strand muss nicht gewusst werden, um dort zu baden.

Unknown knowns sind z. B. vorbewusste Inhalte wie Verhaltensmuster, kulturelle Pr;missen, auch Tabus und Verdr;ngungen und eventuell auch statistische Prognosen, deren Eintreffen und Umfang nur f;r gr;;ere Mengen von Ereignissen relativ genau, f;r den Einzelfall aber nicht exakt vorhersagbar sind.

Unknown unknowns waren f;r Rumsfeld unvorhersehbare Ereignisse oder Zuf;lle, die seine Pl;ne in Art, Umfang und Auswirkung v;llig ;berraschend durchkreuzen k;nnten.

Diese Klassifizierungen sind Relationen von Sachverhalten und dem Wissen ;ber sie, also keine „objektiven“, dinglichen Merkmale. Daher ist die Sortierung eines Ereignisses in das Raster immer auch subjektiv und ver;nderlich: Die Landung von Aliens auf der Erde w;re f;r die einen ein Fall von known unknowns, f;r die anderen aber einer der unknown unknowns. Der Definition nach wandelt sich ein unknown unknown mit dem ersten Auftreten zu einem known unknown, wird dann durch empirische Untersuchung vielleicht zu einem unknown known und danach zu einem known known – die Matrix ist fluide.

Hintergrund
Das Statement geht vermutlich auf eine Pr;sentation Nassim Nicholas Talebs zur;ck, der seine im Jahr 2007 in Der Schwarze Schwan: Die Macht h;chst unwahrscheinlicher Ereignisse ausgearbeitete Thesen bereits in einem Vorg;ngerbuch (deutsch Narren des Zufalls) skizziert hatte und beim amerikanischen Verteidigungsministerium zu einer Pr;sentation eingeladen worden war.[4][5][6] Ebenso nahm Kirk Borne, ein ehemaliger Datenspezialist der NASA, eine Urheberschaft bei einer TED-Pr;sentation in Anspruch.[7] Die Kernbotschaft in „Der Schwarze Schwan“ ist, dass unbekannte Unbekannte bedeutende Umw;lzungen hervorrufen, aber eben nicht vorhergesehen oder einfach abgewendet werden k;nnen.

Die 2;2 Matrix mit „bekannt/unbekannt“ geht auf die amerikanischen Psychologen Joseph Luft (1916–2014) und Harrington Ingham (1916–1995) zur;ck. Das nach ihnen benannte Johari-Fenster ist ein seit 1955 etabliertes Analyseinstrument f;r Selbst- und Fremdwahrnehmung.

Reaktionen
Rumsfeld wurde vorgeworfen, sich unverst;ndlich oder falsch ausgedr;ckt zu haben, unter anderem von der britischen Interessengruppe Plain English Campaign, die sich als Sprachw;chter f;r die Reinheit der englischen Sprache einsetzt.[8] Die Sprachgesellschaft vergab f;r dieses Zitat den „Foot in Mouth“-Preis f;r 2003 an Rumsfeld – mit dem Kommentar: „Wir glauben, wir wissen, was er meint. Aber wir wissen nicht, ob er es wirklich wei;“.[9]

Der Linguist Geoffrey Pullum bezeichnete das Zitat hingegen als „syntaktisch, semantisch, logisch und rhetorisch tadellos“.[10] Ebenso sprachen sich etwa der konservative kanadische Kolumnist Mark Steyn und der australische ;konom und Blogger John Quiggin f;r die Wendung aus.[11]

Der psychoanalytische Philosoph Slavoj ;i;ek extrapolierte aus diesen drei Kategorien eine vierte, das „unbekannte Bekannte“, welches wir uns willentlich weigern anzuerkennen, dass wir es kennen: „Wenn Rumsfeld glaubte, dass die wichtigsten Gefahren in der Konfrontation mit dem Irak die ‚unbekannten Unbekannten‘ waren, das hei;t, die Bedrohungen durch Saddam, deren Natur wir nicht einmal ahnten, dann zeigt uns der Abu-Ghraib-Skandal, dass die gr;;ten Gefahren von den ‚unbekannt Bekannten‘ ausgehen – die verleugneten ;berzeugungen, Vermutungen und obsz;nen Praktiken, von denen wir vorgeben, sie nicht zu kennen, sogar wenn sie die Grundlage unserer ;ffentlichen Werte sind.“[12] ;i;ek baute auch die Ideen des „bekannten Unbekannten“ und des „unbekannten Bekannten“ in seinen Dokumentarfilm ;ber „Die Realit;t des Virtuellen“ ein.

Die Soziologen Christopher Daase und Oliver Kessler sahen das kognitive Rahmenwerk von politischem Handeln (vgl. Framing) durch Rumsfeld richtig formuliert, es fehle nur eben das wichtige vierte Feld, was wir nicht wissen wollen, das unbewusst bleibende beziehungsweise ausgeblendete Wissen.[13]

Eine Formulierung aller vier Aspekte findet sich bereits in der klassischen persischen Literatur. Der persisch-tadschikische Poet Ibn Yamin (* 1286 in Faryumad, bei Sebzevar, † 1368) (;;; ;;;; ;;;;;;;) schrieb im 14. Jahrhundert,[14] dass es vier Typen von M;nnern gibt:

Einer, der wei;, und wei;, dass er wei; ... Sein Pferd der Weisheit wird den Himmel erreichen.
Einer, der wei;, aber nicht wei;, dass er wei; ... Er schl;ft fest, deshalb solltest du ihn aufwecken!
Einer, der nicht wei;, aber wei;, dass er nicht wei; ... Sein lahmendes Maultier wird ihn schlie;lich nach Hause bringen.
Einer, der nicht wei;, und nicht wei;, dass er nicht wei; ... Er wird auf ewig in seiner hoffnungslosen Umnachtung verloren sein!

Popul;rkultur
Seit der Rede von Rumsfeld tauchte das vollst;ndige Zitat aber auch die beiden wichtigsten Begriffe daraus – „known knowns“ und „unknown unknowns“ – in der Popul;rkultur auf:

Der Titel des Romans von Jeffrey Rotte The Unknown Knowns. ist eine Anspielung auf das Zitat und das volle Zitat wird in der Buchinschrift zitiert.
Das Zitat wird in der CD The Poetry of Donald Rumsfeld and Other Fresh American Art Songs verwendet (Die Poesie von Rumsfeld und andere neue amerikanische Kunstlieder)[15]
Hart Seely hat eine Zusammenstellung von Rumsfelds Zitaten unter dem Titel „Pieces of Intelligence: The Existential Poetry of Donald H. Rumsfeld.“ (2003) herausgegeben.
In der amerikanischen Fernseh-Zeichentrickserie The Boondocks wird Donald Rumsfeld durch die Figur Gin Rummy verk;rpert und verwendet des ;fteren das Zitat „unknown unknowns“.
Die Punkrock-Band No Use for a Name verwendete das vollst;ndige Zitat in ihrem Song „Fields of Agony“ f;r das Album „Rock Against Bush, Vol. 2“
In der satirischen, politischen Zeichentrickserie „Lil' Bush“ verwendet die Figur Lil' Rummy in der Folge „Lil' George and Lil' Tony Blair“ das Zitat „unknown unknowns“.
Joan Jett verwendet in ihrem Song „Riddles“ das volle „unknown unknowns“-Zitat.
Der belgische Regisseur Johan Grimonprez l;sst seinen Film „Double Take“ (2009) mit Rumsfelds Zitat enden.
Im Theaterst;ck „I am Providence“ von Wilke Weermann wird das Zitat auf Deutsch vorgetragen und in den Kontext des „kosmischen Horrors“ des Autors Lovecraft gestellt, der auf der Unkenntnis h;herer, oft feindseliger M;chte basiert.
Siehe auch
Ich wei;, dass ich nichts wei;
Ignoramus et ignorabimus
Weblinks
Rumsfelds vollst;ndiges Zitat in seiner Rede auf der Pressekonferenz (auf youtube, L;nge: 34 Sekunden)
Einzelnachweise
 DoD News Briefing – Secretary Rumsfeld and Gen. Myers (Defense.gov News Transcript, United States Department of Defense (defense.gov))
 David A. Maluf, Yuri O. Gawdiak, David G. Bell: On Space Exploration and Human Error: A paper on reliability and safety. (Hawaii International Conference on Systems Science. Hilton Waikoloa Village, HI, 3. – 6. Januar 2005)
 RUMSFELD / KNOWNS. CNN (YouTube-Video), 12. Februar 2002, abgerufen am 4. Juli 2021 (englisch).
 Days that shook the world, Oliver Burkeman, book review in The Guardian 2007.
 A Point of View: See no evil 10. Januar 2014.
 Kursbuch 180: Nicht wissen (not knowing (sic!)), Armin Nassehi, Peter Felixberger Murmann Verlag DE, 2. Dezember 2014.
 Big Data, Small World: Kirk Borne at TEDxGeorgeMasonU
 Mark Steyn: Rummy speaks the truth, not gobbledygook. (9. Dezember 2003, Daily Telegraph)
 Politik-Geschwafel „… es gibt auch unbekannte Unbekannte …“ (www.sueddeutsche.de, 1. Dezember 2002)
 Geoffrey K. Pullum: „Language Log: No foot in mouth“ (2. Dezember 2003, University of Pennsylvania – Language Log)
 John Quiggin: In Defense of Rumsfeld. (10. Februar 2004)
 Slavoj ;i;ek: What Rumsfeld Doesn't Know That He Knows About Abu Ghraib.
 Knowns and Unknowns in the `War on Terror': Uncertainty and the Political Construction of Danger, Christopher Daase and Oliver Kessler, Security Dialogue, December 2007; vol. 38, 4, S. 411–434.
 Grundlage der ;bersetzung: Niayesh Afshordi: He will be eternally lost in his hopeless oblivion! In: Webauftritt des Astrophysikers Niayesh Afshordi. 26. Juli 2016, abgerufen am 17. April 2022 (englisch).
 The Poetry of Donald Rumsfeld
Kategorien: Kognitive VerzerrungGefl;geltes WortErkenntnistheorieEnglische Phrase

Es gibt bekanntes Bekanntes ... Aber es gibt auch unbekanntes Unbekanntes“) ist der


Es gibt bekanntes Bekanntes; es gibt Dinge, von denen wir wissen, dass wir sie wissen. Wir wissen auch, dass es bekanntes Unbekanntes gibt; das heisst, wir wissen, dass es einige Dinge gibt, die wir nicht wissen. Aber es gibt auch unbekanntes Unbekanntes – es gibt Dinge, von denen wir nicht wissen, dass wir sie nicht wissen.“

– Donald Rumsfeld: Pressekonferenz vom 12. Februar 2002[3]

Unbekanntes Unbekanntes a la Trump heisst, dass es Dinge gibt, von denen er  nichts  weiss und nicht mal wissen will ... "

– Sokrates