AfD is no longer an insurgent force

Alice Weidel, the AfD co-leader, says the party’s talk of ‘millions of deportations’ does not apply to German citizens - Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images
Alice Weidel, the AfD co-leader, says the party’s talk of ‘millions of deportations’ does not apply to German citizens - Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images
Alternative f;r Deutschland (AfD) is no longer an insurgent force shouting from the German political margins. It is knocking on the door of local government, looking poised to win two of this year’s regional elections: the eastern states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt.


Yet beneath the positive polling numbers, the Right-wing party appears more uncertain than ever about how radical it wants to be; and whether it actually wants to govern or to simply provoke the establishment parties out of their perceived liberal inertia.

Elements of the AfD’s base are pushing for ever more drastic policies, but the leadership is aware of the danger of Rightward drift. This tension is most apparent in the AfD’s recent flirtation with Martin Sellner, a well-known Austrian activist and advocate of “remigration” – the voluntary or involuntary removal of large numbers of migrants and migrant-descended people from the country.

In recent weeks, AfD representatives in Brandenburg and Thuringia have rolled out the red carpet for Sellner, inviting him into parliamentary spaces to speak about his vision. Given the AfD lives under the shadow of potential legal sanction, this is a risky move.

Sellner’s ideas go beyond controversy; they have been judged unconstitutional for their violation of human dignity provisions. He does not call for violence, but such a programme rests on coercion: placing citizens under such pressure that they would “choose” to leave.


Supporters of the far-Right AfD party are met by counter protesters in Duesseldorf - Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Supporters of the far-Right AfD party are met by counter protesters in Duesseldorf - Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images
The AfD is playing with fire here. The constitution has sharp teeth. A party that can be shown to threaten the equality of its citizens can be banned. The AfD knows this. That is why its leaders, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, have attempted to keep Sellner at arm’s length. They insist their talk of “millions of deportations” does not apply to German citizens.

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But discipline is fraying. The invitation to Sellner in Erfurt is already being seen as a challenge to the party leadership’s authority.

The AfD’s more radical wing, led by Bj;rn H;cke, senses momentum, especially as the term “remigration” gains renewed currency among populists abroad. Donald Trump may have popularised mass deportation rhetoric, but he has been reluctant to advocate for the removal of US citizens, even if it appears that some have been caught in the net.

The AfD’s swing to the Right also comes as other European Right-wing populist parties are aiming for the centre. Marine Le Pen has distanced herself, as has Giorgia Meloni. They understand the electoral limitations of being seen as too extreme.


Marine Le Pen, a figurehead of France’s nationalist Right, has distanced herself from ‘remigration’ - Sarah Meyssonnier/REUTERS
Marine Le Pen, a figurehead of France’s nationalist Right, has distanced herself from ‘remigration’ - Sarah Meyssonnier/REUTERS
By contrast, the AfD lives for provocation, which appears to veer into adolescent-style thrill seeking. In doing so, it runs the risk of playing into the hands of its enemies and giving them the ammunition to fire back.

The party is perhaps beginning to realise what the responsibility of governing would entail.

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Reports suggest it has established a task force in anticipation of taking office in Saxony-Anhalt. This is not surprising. Protest parties thrive on opposition, not ruling. They attract agitators, not civil servants. It has few staffers with experience of the mundane realities of statecraft: budgets, policing, education, bureaucracy.

Populism thrives on disruption. Its energy comes from outrage, from denouncing elites and from promising easy solutions. Government saps that energy. It requires compromise, competence and restraint.

The AfD is caught in a bind here. If it moderates, it risks alienating the radicals who brought it this far. If it radicalises, it risks electoral failure, legal consequences and further isolation from Europe’s more pragmatic Right.

Attempts by the German establishment to exclude the AfD from the political process have failed. It has not stopped its rise and, if anything, has given it a sheen of martyrdom.

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Doubtless the German electorate is increasingly aware of the limitations of liberal government, but it should note the danger of the party edging towards power – albeit, for the time being, at a regional level.

Germans may soon discover that the populists were never interested in governing the state. Only in shaking it.

Henry Donovan is an Anglo-German journalist and communications adviser based in Berlin. He previously worked on the political desk of Bild and Die Welt