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Trump's unpredictable Middle East moves actually follow a brilliant master plan
Opinion by Tanvi Ratna

President Donald Trump came back into office promising no new wars. So far, he’s kept that promise. But he’s also left much of Washington — and many of America’s allies — confused by a series of rapid, unexpected moves across the Middle East.

In just a few months, Trump has reopened backchannels with Iran, then turned around and threatened its regime with collapse. He’s kept Israel at arm’s length — skipping it on his regional tour — before signaling support once again. He lifted U.S. sanctions on Syria’s Islamist leader, a figure long treated as untouchable in Washington. And he made headlines by hosting Pakistan’s top general at the White House, even as India publicly objected.

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For those watching closely, it’s been hard to pin down a clear doctrine. Critics see improvisation — sometimes even contradiction. But step back, and a pattern begins to emerge. It’s not about ideology, democracy promotion, or traditional alliances. It’s about access. Geography. Trade.

US MOBILIZES MILITARY ASSETS TO THE MIDDLE EAST AMID CONFLICT

More specifically, it may be about restarting a long-stalled infrastructure project meant to bypass China — and put the United States back at the center of a strategic economic corridor stretching from India to Europe.


This image shows an aircraft launching from the USS Harry S. Truman in the Red Sea before airstrikes in Sanaa, Yemen, on March 15. Associated Press
This image shows an aircraft launching from the USS Harry S. Truman in the Red Sea before airstrikes in Sanaa, Yemen, on March 15. Associated Press
© U.S. Navy via AP
The project is called the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor, or IMEC. Most Americans have never heard of it. It was launched in 2023 at the G20 summit in New Delhi, as a joint initiative among the U.S., India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the European Union. Its goal? To build a modern infrastructure link connecting South Asia to Europe — without passing through Chinese territory or relying on Chinese capital.

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IMEC’s vision is bold but simple: Indian goods would travel west via rail and ports through the Gulf, across Israel, and on to European markets. Along the way, the corridor would connect not just trade routes, but energy pipelines, digital cables, and logistics hubs. It would be the first serious alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative — a way for the U.S. and its partners to build influence without boots on the ground.

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But before construction could begin, war broke out in Gaza.

The October 2023 Hamas attacks and Israel’s military response sent the region into crisis. Normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel fell apart. The Red Sea became a warzone for shipping. And Gulf capital flows paused. The corridor — and the broader idea of using infrastructure to tie the region together — was quietly shelved.

A nuke, he's not going to sign the joint statement.
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President Trump attends G7 meeting amid Middle East conflict
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That’s the backdrop for Trump’s current moves. Taken individually, they seem scattered. Taken together, they align with the logic of clearing obstacles to infrastructure. Trump may not be drawing maps in the Situation Room. But his instincts — for leverage, dealmaking and unpredictability — are removing the very roadblocks that halted IMEC in the first place.

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His approach to Iran is a prime example. In April, backchannels were reopened on the nuclear front. In May, a Yemen truce was brokered — reducing attacks on Gulf shipping. In June, after Israeli strikes inside Iran, Trump escalated rhetorically, calling for Iran’s "unconditional surrender." That combination of engagement and pressure may sound erratic. But it mirrors the approach that cleared a diplomatic path with North Korea: soften the edges, then apply public pressure.

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Meanwhile, Trump’s temporary distancing from Israel is harder to miss. He skipped it on his regional tour and avoided aligning with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s continued hard-line approach to Gaza. Instead, he praised Qatar — a U.S. military partner and quiet mediator in the Gaza talks — and signaled support for Gulf-led reconstruction plans. The message: if Israel refuses to engage in regional stabilization, it won’t control the map.

Trump also made the unexpected decision to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria’s new leader, President Ahmad al-Sharaa — a figure with a past in Islamist groups, now leading a transitional government backed by the UAE. Critics saw the move as legitimizing extremism. But in practice, it unlocked regional financing and access to transit corridors once blocked by U.S. policy.


Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani welcomes President Donald Trump during an official welcoming ceremony at the Amiri Diwan in Doha, Qatar, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. AP Newsroom
Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani welcomes President Donald Trump during an official welcoming ceremony at the Amiri Diwan in Doha, Qatar, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. AP Newsroom
© AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Even the outreach to Pakistan — which angered India — fits a broader infrastructure lens. Pakistan borders Iran, influences Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, and maintains ties with Gulf militaries. Welcoming Pakistan’s military chief was less about loyalty, and more about leverage. In corridor politics, geography often trumps alliances.

TRUMP WRAPS MOMENTOUS MIDDLE EAST TRIP WITH ECONOMIC DEALS, SYRIA SANCTIONS RELIEF AND WARNING TO IRAN

None of this means Trump has a master plan. There’s no confirmed strategy memo that links these moves to IMEC. And the region remains volatile. Iran’s internal stability is far from guaranteed. The Gaza conflict could reignite. Saudi and Qatari interests don’t always align. But there’s a growing logic underneath the diplomacy: de-escalate just enough conflict to make capital flow again — and make corridors investable.

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That logic may not be ideologically pure. It certainly isn’t about spreading democracy. But it reflects a real shift in U.S. foreign policy. Call it infrastructure-first geopolitics — where trade routes, ports and pipelines matter more than treaties and summits.

To be clear, the United States isn’t the only player thinking this way. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has been advancing the same model for over a decade. Turkey, Iran and Russia are also exploring new logistics and energy corridors. But what sets IMEC apart — and what makes Trump’s recent moves notable — is that it offers an opening for the U.S. to compete without large-scale military deployments or decades-long aid packages.

For all his unpredictability, Trump has always had a sense for economic leverage. That may be what we’re seeing here: less a doctrine than a direction. Less about grand visions, and more about unlocking chokepoints.

There’s no guarantee it will work. The region could turn on a dime. And the corridor could remain, as it is now, a partially built concept waiting on political will. But Trump’s moves suggest he’s trying to build the conditions for it to restart — not by talking about peace, but by making peace a condition for investment.

In a region long shaped by wars over ideology and territory, that may be its own kind of strategy.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE FROM TANVI RATNA

Original article source: Trump's unpredictable Middle East moves actually follow a brilliant master plan


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'Irreparable damage': How Trump’s unpredictable approach to Iran could seriously backfire | Opinion
Opinion by The Conversation
REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo
REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo
© provided by AlterNet
Donald Trump has dismissed reports that he has approved a plan of attack against Iran, and now says he will decide on US involvement within two weeks. This will only add to the speculation and confusion about what the president might do in response to the mounting conflict between Iran and Israel. And that’s exactly what Trump wants.

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This is not a case of indecision or buying time. Trump has long based his foreign policy on being unpredictable. Iran is another example of his strategy to be as elusive as possible. Yet, his approach has always been difficult – and now threatens to destabilise an already fractious conflict.

One interpretation of Trump’s public threat towards Iran could be deterrence. Trump is warning Iran that there would be significant consequences if they do not reverse their nuclear ambitions. Change or you will regret it.

If this is Trump’s plan, then he is doing it badly. Successful deterrence relies on clearly communicating the exact penalties of not complying. While Trump has specified a possible attack on infamous underground nuclear facility at Fordow, the rest of the plan is extremely hazy. Trump said he wants “better than a ceasefire”.

But what does that mean? Just Fordow? Boots on the ground? Regime change? His ambiguity creates problems for deterrence because if your adversary doesn’t know what the outcomes of their actions will be, they can’t formulate a response or will think you just aren’t serious.

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But current US foreign policy on Iran is more than bad deterrence. Trump’s vague rhetoric and his refusal to commit reflects his long-standing strategy of being unreliable when it comes to foreign policy.

Trump’s prevarication has all the hallmarks of his unpredictability doctrine – which states that you should never let anyone know what you will do. The doctrine is also about uncertainty. The idea being that you unnerve your opponents by making them unsure, allowing you to take the advantage while they have no idea what to do themselves.

Trump’s rhetoric on Iran reflects that unpredictability doctrine. Trump actively said of his future action: “I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.”

This would not be the first time he has used unpredictability in relation to Iran. In 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA). This agreement – signed by the US, France, Germany, the UK, China, Russia and the EU – was designed to limit Iran’s nuclear activity in return for sanctions relief. The US withdrawal was seen as disruptive and creating unnecessary uncertainty, not just for Iran but also US allies.

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Will the strategy work?

Being unpredictable is a dangerous way of doing foreign policy. Stable international politics depends on knowing what everyone else will do. You can’t do that with Trump.

The downsides of unpredictability will be even worse in a conflict. In the case of Iran, adding even more uncertainty to a fragile situation will only add fuel to what is already a massive fire.

Trump’s refusal to specify exactly what the US response would be is more proverbial petrol. The insinuation that this could escalate to regime change may be true or not (or just unpredictable bluster).

It’s also the case that only 14% of Americans support military intervention and so a more aggressive policy may not be realistic. But if Iran is led to think that Trump is directly threatening their state, this could encourage them to hunker down as opposed to changing their nuclear policy – risking greater military action on both sides.

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Even just the implicit threat of US military intervention will damage what little relations there are between America and Iran. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has said: “Any US military intervention will undoubtedly cause irreparable damage.” Unpredictability then undermines any diplomatic negotiations or solution to the crisis.

Trump is also risking his foreign policy relations beyond Iran. While preventing a new member of the nuclear club is a laudable aim, any US attack on a state over weapons of mass destruction (WMD) will lie in the difficult shadow of the “war on terror”, the US-led military campaign launched after 9/11.

With the International Atomic Energy Agency questioning Iran’s capacity to build a nuclear bomb, the US’s legacy of intervention over the WMD in Iraq that never were still looms large. Trump will need to be fully transparent and clear if any action over nuclear arms is going to be seen as legitimate. Unpredictability does not allow for that.

Trump’s fellow state leaders are going to feel disrupted by yet another example of unpredictability. Even if they support curbing Iran, they may find it difficult to back someone they simply can’t depend on. And if they feel cautious about the Iran situation because they can’t rely on Trump, Trump needs to start asking whether he can rely on them for support in whatever his next move is.

This article was amended on June 19 2025 to include Donald Trump’s denial of reports he had approved a plan of attack against Iran.

Michelle Bentley, Professor of International Relations, Royal Holloway University of London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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